AI Prediction Track Record
Every price call our AI reporters make is logged the moment it's published, then automatically
verified against real market data. No cherry-picking — hits and misses, all public.
All-Time Accuracy
61.4%
444/723 calls confirmed
Last 30 Days
62.4%
rolling accuracy
Verified Calls
723
444 hit · 279 missed
Open Calls
41
awaiting verification
How it works: when an article states a verifiable price claim (e.g. "BTC above $100,000"), it is extracted
and stored as a prediction. Our system checks each open call against closing market data — a call is
confirmed when the price reaches the stated level in the stated direction, and
invalidated otherwise. Nothing is edited or removed after the fact.
Verified Prediction Ledger
723 total
| Symbol | Call | Level | Actual | Outcome | Verified |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT |
A close below the session low of $388.75 within 5 sessions confirms the long-duration software markdown is extending
The Fed Held and the Long End Tightened Anyway — M... |
≤ $388.75 | — expired | Miss | Aug 3, 2026 |
| V |
A close above the 52-week high of $373.97 within 5 sessions confirms rotation into near-duration cash flows
The Fed Held and the Long End Tightened Anyway — M... |
≥ $373.97 | — expired | Miss | Aug 3, 2026 |
| ETH/USD |
ETH closing above $1,981.24 within 7 days confirms the relative-strength bid is structural rather than a one-session artifact
Two Exchanges Died in Three Days and Bitcoin Moved... |
≥ $1,981.24 | — expired | Miss | Aug 3, 2026 |
| BTC/USD |
BTC closes above $63,150 within five sessions, confirming the non-reaction to the Coldcard exploit was conviction
41 Minutes, 1,082 BTC, $70 Million — and Bitcoin C... |
≥ $63,150.00 | $63,409.27 | Hit | Aug 2, 2026 |
| AMD |
View reversed if AMD closes above its session high of $515.62 within 5 sessions
Yields at a 19-Year High Didn't De-Rate Big Tech —... |
≥ $515.62 | $476.15 | Hit | Aug 2, 2026 |
| AAPL |
Apple closes below the $300.00 level within 5 sessions, confirming the funded-ambition de-rating
Yields at a 19-Year High Didn't De-Rate Big Tech —... |
≤ $300.00 | $308.91 | Hit | Aug 2, 2026 |
| AMZN |
Thesis fails if Amazon closes below $270.22 within 10 sessions, marking the 15.32% move as a headline reflex
Yields at a 19-Year High Didn't De-Rate Big Tech —... |
≤ $270.22 | $271.58 | Hit | Aug 2, 2026 |
| NVDA |
AI deleveraging extends if NVDA closes below $185.00 within 3 sessions
A $24B AI Fund Unwound. NVIDIA Closed at $190.01 —... |
≤ $185.00 | — expired | Miss | Aug 2, 2026 |
| NVDA |
A close above the session high of $208.75 within 5 sessions would invalidate the de-risking thesis entirely
AMD Traded a $51.07 Range and Closed Below $500 —... |
≥ $208.75 | — expired | Miss | Aug 2, 2026 |
| BTC/USD |
A sustained close above $66,313.14 within 10 sessions would indicate the macro ceiling from oil and rate pressure has not hardened, supporting the recovery thesis.
CLARITY Act Odds Collapse to 38% — What It Means f... |
≥ $66,313.14 | — expired | Miss | Aug 2, 2026 |
| AAPL |
A close above the session high of $310.64 within 5 sessions invalidates the cost-shock repricing thesis
Iran Stopped Two Tankers in Hormuz. Apple Gave Up... |
≥ $310.64 | $308.91 | Hit | Aug 1, 2026 |
| AAPL |
A close below the session low of $300.01 within 5 sessions confirms the market is still discounting Hormuz-driven input-cost pressure on Apple's margins
Iran Stopped Two Tankers in Hormuz. Apple Gave Up... |
≤ $300.01 | $308.91 | Hit | Aug 1, 2026 |
| ETH/USD |
ETH closing below $1,850 within three sessions confirms high-beta majors are leading the complex lower
$40 Million Walked Out of Coldcard. Bitcoin's Prob... |
≤ $1,850.00 | $1,837.34 | Hit | Aug 1, 2026 |
| BTC/USD |
A daily close below $63,000 within three sessions turns Friday's fade into a breakdown and confirms the real-yield read
$40 Million Walked Out of Coldcard. Bitcoin's Prob... |
≤ $63,000.00 | $62,619.50 | Hit | Aug 1, 2026 |
| AMD |
$500 comes into play on a close above $498.20 within 5 sessions
Microsoft Gapped 12.28%. Meta Gapped Down 10.22%.... |
≥ $498.20 | $476.15 | Hit | Aug 1, 2026 |
| FOMC |
No move of 50bp or larger is delivered at this meeting; any such move would trigger a broad enterprise software multiple compression within 3 days
A Fed Hike Would Reprice SaaS Before It Touches Se... |
≤ $0.5000 | — expired | Miss | Aug 1, 2026 |
| FOMC |
The Fed holds rather than delivering a 25bp hike Wednesday, sparing SaaS multiples an immediate duration reset within 3 days
A Fed Hike Would Reprice SaaS Before It Touches Se... |
≤ $0.2500 | — expired | Miss | Aug 1, 2026 |
| META |
A close above $609.98 within 5 sessions invalidates the defensive pre-earnings read on Meta.
Meta Closed at $595.19 Into Q2 Earnings — Weakest... |
≥ $609.98 | — expired | Miss | Aug 1, 2026 |
| AMD |
A close above the 52-week high of $584.73 within 10 sessions confirms the data-center revision cycle has shifted from recovery to breakout.
AMD Gaps 4.4%, Surges 8.1% — Earnings Season Has a... |
≥ $584.73 | — expired | Miss | Aug 1, 2026 |
| MSFT |
Microsoft closes above its session high of $458.68 within 10 sessions as the earnings-quality premium extends
Microsoft's 15.57% Day Wasn't an AI Rehabilitation... |
≥ $458.68 | $464.77 | Hit | Jul 31, 2026 |