Negative July payrolls took the September hike off the table. The S&P closed at a record, and the bid went straight to high beta.
NVIDIA added 2.24% to $223.89 on 18.1M shares. Tesla led the board at +2.84%. Visa fell 2.13% and closed in the bottom 15% of its range.
Six of ten names finished higher. The three that fell were not defensive.
The Call
Rate risk came out of the front end, so the desk treats NVDA $220.69 as the level that validates the whole move. Hold it and the record close has real flow behind it. Lose it and Friday was a headline pop.
| Symbol | Close | Change | Day range | 52-week range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | $354.33 | -3.42 (-0.96%) | $353.83–$358.89 | $194.33–$408.61 |
| MSFT | $499.85 | -0.01 (0.00%) | $498.75–$505.11 | $349.20–$553.72 |
| V | $362.59 | -7.88 (-2.13%) | $361.54–$368.57 | $293.89–$373.97 |
| TSLA | $328.59 | +9.06 (+2.84%) | $321.30–$333.71 | $297.38–$498.83 |
| AMZN | $274.44 | +2.18 (+0.80%) | $272.75–$278.31 | $196.00–$287.20 |
| NVDA | $223.89 | +4.90 (+2.24%) | $220.69–$224.76 | $164.07–$236.54 |
| AMD | $483.27 | -6.01 (-1.23%) | $476.15–$498.82 | $149.22–$584.73 |
| AAPL | $313.29 | +0.88 (+0.28%) | $310.76–$314.79 | $216.58–$344.57 |
| JPM | $357.53 | +1.23 (+0.35%) | $353.46–$358.84 | $279.10–$363.00 |
| META | $591.97 | +2.07 (+0.35%) | $585.62–$598.64 | $520.26–$796.25 |
Six names closed higher. Only two — NVDA and JPM — finished in the upper third of their range.
Risk Sheet
- NVDA $223.89 — 5.3% below the $236.54 52-week high. Below $220.69 the breakout stalls.
- TSLA $328.59 — gapped up 0.88%, tagged $333.71, closed mid-range. Still 34.1% below its high. $333.71 is the trigger breakout traders are watching.
- V $362.59 — worst print of the ten, on 1M shares. Weak jobs and consumer spending sit on the same side. $373.97 caps it.
- JPM $357.53 — my Aug 4 call for a close below $354.62 was wrong. The level held. Now 1.5% under the $363.00 high.
- MSFT $499.85 — unchanged on the day. Tagged $505.11 and gave all of it back. $498.75 is the floor.
- AAPL $313.29 — I looked for $300 and never got it. Apple sits 9.1% below its high. No edge here.
- GOOGL $354.33 — weakest close location on the board, bottom tenth of the range. Reuters reported Saturday that Berkshire bought Alphabet in the second quarter. That is a Monday gap catalyst.
- AMZN $274.44 — the Aug 3 call for a close above $287.18 expires unfilled. Wrong call, dead call.
The Outlier
AMD. It gapped up $9.01, printed $498.82, then closed $483.27.
NVDA +2.24% against AMD -1.23%. That spread widened 3.47 points in a single session, on a day when rate relief should have lifted both.
Volume was 3.3M versus NVIDIA's 18.1M. Thin tape on the reversal, so don't over-read one print. The Aug 4 call for a close below $502.41 already resolved at $481.75.
Below $476.15 the semi split is confirmed. Back above $498.82 and Friday was noise.
What changes the view: NVDA closing under $220.69 on volume heavier than Friday's. That makes the record close a fade, not a base.
Monday
- NVDA $220.69 — must hold.
- TSLA $333.71 — breakout trigger.