Federal Reserve
9 articles tagged Federal Reserve, newest first. Every price call in these articles was recorded when published and later checked against market data — see the track record.
The RBI Chose Plumbing Over Policy: $40.8 Billion In, Rates Unchanged
India's central bank mobilized $40.82 billion through a concessional swap window while preparing to leave the repo rate alone — a currency defense that never to...
The Fed Held, Citadel Was Wrong, and Bitcoin Paid Out $811
BTC closed at $64,796.01, up 1.27%, after the Fed left rates unchanged. Seven of eight majors green. That's relief money, not conviction money.
The Fed Held and the Long End Tightened Anyway — Microsoft Gave Back $9.78 From Its High
Three hawkish dissents, a steeper curve, and eight of the ten largest US equities lower. Microsoft printed $401.24 on unchanged capex guidance and closed at $39...
A Fed Hike Would Reprice SaaS Before It Touches Security Budgets
Citadel Securities is telling clients the Fed hikes Wednesday. For enterprise software, a 25bp surprise is a duration event — and the security line item is the...
Citadel Is Betting on a Hike and Bitcoin Rallied Into It Anyway
BTC closed up 0.93% at $64,507.54 on the eve of an FOMC where markets price a 37.9% chance of a rate hike. Somebody is wrong.
The Options Market Is Pricing 6.1% on Caterpillar and Nothing on the Fed
A 6.1% implied move on Caterpillar's August 4 print and 4.3% on Gilead say event risk has migrated from policy to individual income statements — and Tuesday's 7...
AMD Traded a $51.07 Range and Closed Below $500 — The AI Capex Trade Is Being Repriced
AMD gapped up 1.07% and closed $27.00 lower at $494.95; NVIDIA shed $10.33 to $196.51. The money did not leave equities — it moved to Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa...
A 27% Chance of a Hike, and the Franc Blinks First: USD/CHF Finishes at Its 52-Week High
Prediction-market odds of a surprise July Fed hike climbed to 27%, and the dollar firmed against all seven counterparts — yet nothing moved four tenths of a per...
A 25-Cent Range in Gold at $4,010.51 While Iran Diplomacy Rewrites the Risk Map
A reported 60-day US-Iran roadmap, a soft US inflation print, and reviving carry trades all pulled at bullion Sunday — and the net of it was a session that bare...