The soft September jobs report cut the odds of an October Fed hike. Equities bought it at the open and sold it by the close.
The S&P 500 added 0.7% Friday, within 1% of its record. Under the index, the gaps leaked all day.
Verdict
Rate relief bought one gap and nothing more — the desk fades gap-ups that close in the lower third. NVDA at $237.85 is the level that decides whether the semi bid is still real.
| Symbol | Close | Change | Day range | 52-week range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | $634.87 | +19.14 (+3.11%) | $630.90–$645.43 | $163.14–$645.43 |
| V | $359.02 | -0.84 (-0.23%) | $356.84–$360.55 | $293.89–$385.57 |
| JPM | $330.67 | -2.51 (-0.75%) | $330.12–$334.82 | $279.10–$366.50 |
| TSLA | $371.26 | +17.15 (+4.84%) | $359.46–$374.36 | $297.38–$498.83 |
| META | $732.30 | +6.37 (+0.88%) | $727.57–$741.43 | $520.26–$779.82 |
| AMZN | $250.73 | +2.50 (+1.01%) | $250.59–$253.54 | $196.00–$287.20 |
| GOOGL | $342.25 | +4.01 (+1.19%) | $341.27–$345.75 | $235.84–$408.61 |
| NVDA | $234.95 | +4.09 (+1.77%) | $234.55–$237.85 | $164.27–$237.85 |
| MSFT | $514.38 | +1.58 (+0.31%) | $514.09–$522.46 | $349.20–$553.72 |
| AAPL | $331.50 | +1.18 (+0.36%) | $330.65–$334.53 | $243.42–$345.34 |
The Names
NVDA — $234.95. Up 1.77% after a 2.27% gap. Tagged a fresh 52-week high at $237.85 intraday.
Closed at 12% of the day's range. Volume 2.1M, multiples of anything else on the board. Our $237.85 call is live through Tuesday.
TSLA — $371.26. Best print of the session at +4.84%. Gapped 1.75% and kept going — second straight green close.
Only name to finish in the upper third. The 90-day high at $380.30 is the level breakout traders are watching.
AMD — $634.87. Up 3.11% on a 3.36% gap. Printed a 52-week high at $645.43, then faded to 27% of the range.
Up 35.3% over 30 sessions. Below $630.90 the breakout gets suspect.
MSFT — $514.38. The cleanest fade on the board. Gapped up 1.23%, touched $522.46, closed at 3% of the range.
Net gain on the day: 31 basis points. That is a round-trip, dressed as a green close.
Eight of the ten largest names closed green. Seven of the ten closed in the lower third of their session range.
JPM — $330.67. Down 0.75% and the weakest name of the ten. Gapped higher, then went red and stayed red.
Sits 0.9% above its 90-day low of $327.58. Lower rate-hike odds hurt the bank — that is consistent.
V — $359.02. Down 0.23%, closed mid-range. Our call for a break of the $355.74 90-day floor never filled — the financials de-rating stalled at Visa while it ran through JPMorgan. Visa still trades 0.9% above that floor.
The Risk Sheet
- Hike odds reprice back up. Jim Cramer flagged the Fed's resumed tightening as his main fear this quarter. → NVDA below $233.78 → the semi carve-out is gone and the index has no leader.
- The AMD breakout is a bull trap. Two green closes but only +0.6% over five sessions. → Close below $630.90 → treat the 52-week high as a failed print.
- Megacap distribution continues. Amazon and Microsoft both shut inside the bottom 5% of their ranges. → MSFT below $509.00 → the breadth under the index is hollow.
- Financials keep bleeding. JPMorgan is down 6.0% over 30 sessions. → JPM below $327.58 → the 90-day floor is gone and the group leads lower.
Tomorrow's Checklist
- NVDA 237.85 — breakout
- TSLA 380.30 — confirmation
- MSFT 509.00 — invalidation