Payroll growth missed, prior months were revised lower, and wage growth slowed. Stocks gapped higher on it and the Nasdaq 100 closed at a record, per the Americas FX wrap from investingLive.
Then Treasury yields reversed higher. The record print happened — but the bid thinned out into the bell.
The Call
The semi complex is still the only unconditional bid, and we press it while NVDA holds $233.78. Everything else gapped up on the jobs number and gave most of it back once yields turned — that is distribution into strength, and it caps the index here.
| Symbol | Close | Change | Day range | 52-week range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | $634.87 | +19.14 (+3.11%) | $630.90–$645.43 | $163.14–$645.43 |
| JPM | $330.67 | -2.51 (-0.75%) | $330.12–$334.82 | $279.10–$366.50 |
| TSLA | $371.26 | +17.15 (+4.84%) | $359.46–$374.36 | $297.38–$498.83 |
| META | $732.30 | +6.37 (+0.88%) | $727.57–$741.43 | $520.26–$779.82 |
| AMZN | $250.73 | +2.50 (+1.01%) | $250.59–$253.54 | $196.00–$287.20 |
| GOOGL | $342.25 | +4.01 (+1.19%) | $341.27–$345.75 | $235.84–$408.61 |
| NVDA | $234.95 | +4.09 (+1.77%) | $234.55–$237.85 | $164.27–$237.85 |
| MSFT | $514.38 | +1.58 (+0.31%) | $514.09–$522.46 | $349.20–$553.72 |
| V | $359.02 | -0.84 (-0.23%) | $356.84–$360.55 | $293.89–$385.57 |
| AAPL | $331.50 | +1.18 (+0.36%) | $330.65–$334.53 | $243.42–$345.34 |
All ten of the largest names opened above the prior close. Seven of them closed in the lower third of the session range.
Priority Board
NVDA — $234.95. Up 1.77% after a 2.27% gap. Tagged a new 52-week high at $237.85, closed in the lower third. Volume 2.1M — multiples of anything else on the board. That is the real bid. Our call above $232.81 confirmed here. Invalidation $233.78.
AMD — $634.87. Up 3.11%, second straight green close, up 35.3% over 30 sessions. Printed a 52-week high at $645.43 and closed below the open. Gap-and-fade on a record. Below $630.90 the breakout is suspect.
TSLA — $371.26. Biggest mover at +4.84%, and the only name to close in the upper third. The sole clean print of the session. $380.30 is the level breakout traders are watching.
MSFT — $514.38. Gapped up 1.23%, touched $522.46, closed at $514.38 — 3% of the range. Up a third of a percent on the day after being up more than four times that intraday. That is the session in one name.
JPM — $330.67. Gapped higher, then closed down 0.75% and in the lower third. Only two names finished red, and the biggest bank was the worse of the two. Sits 0.9% above the $327.58 90-day low, where our prior call confirmed. Yields turning back up did not help it.
V — $359.02. Down 0.23%, 0.9% above the $355.74 90-day floor. We called that floor to break and it held — the de-rating stalled rather than accelerated. Credit the defense, not the thesis. Below $357.22 it is live again.
Exposure Check
- Working: semis. NVDA and AMD both closed at 90-day highs. Volume confirmed in NVDA.
- Working: TSLA above $369.40 — the only megacap that kept its gain into the close.
- Not working: financials. JPM and V were the session's only red closes, into a yield reversal that should have helped them.
- Changing: we stop treating gap-ups as entries. MSFT $516.95 and AMZN $251.98 are the reclaim levels. Without them, Friday's opens were the highs.
- What flips us: a close above $237.85 in NVDA with volume at or above 2.1M. That makes the fade a pause, and we press the whole complex.
Pre-Open Watch
- NVDA — $237.85 — press
- AMD — $630.90 — fade
- JPM — $327.58 — fade