Reuters put out four warnings on bond-market stress as yields pushed higher. The equity board did not sell off on it. It rotated — hard, and inside the megacap complex.
Verdict
The yield move is being paid for by AI hardware, while payments, software and consumer names absorbed it at the highs. If AMD keeps failing its opens, the semi fade extends — above NVDA $233.89 we drop it.
| Symbol | Close | Change | Day range | 52-week range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | $334.70 | -5.73 (-1.68%) | $330.71–$334.74 | $243.42–$345.34 |
| MSFT | $533.24 | +10.63 (+2.03%) | $526.36–$534.00 | $349.20–$553.72 |
| NVDA | $230.33 | -0.15 (-0.07%) | $230.08–$233.89 | $164.27–$243.37 |
| GOOGL | $351.19 | +2.90 (+0.83%) | $350.38–$353.84 | $235.84–$408.61 |
| AMZN | $260.08 | +6.02 (+2.37%) | $256.13–$260.67 | $196.00–$287.20 |
| META | $720.53 | -0.36 (-0.05%) | $716.99–$726.51 | $520.26–$779.82 |
| TSLA | $384.52 | +9.52 (+2.54%) | $381.35–$388.53 | $297.38–$498.83 |
| JPM | $332.77 | +1.35 (+0.41%) | $330.62–$332.77 | $279.10–$366.50 |
| V | $382.88 | +7.78 (+2.07%) | $375.48–$382.89 | $293.89–$385.57 |
| AMD | $612.92 | -7.76 (-1.25%) | $611.02–$627.22 | $188.22–$658.52 |
Six of the ten largest names closed green. The four red ones include both pure-play chip stocks.
The Board
AMD — $612.92. Gapped up 0.98%, then bled all session to close down 1.25% in the lower third of its range. Third consecutive red close, down 3.5% over five sessions. That is the cleanest distribution print on the board.
NVDA — $230.33. Opened $3.37 above the prior close and shut at 7% of the day's range, barely red. Third straight red close. Our Oct 3 call above $237.85 confirmed — the name has gone nowhere but down since.
Three names gapped up and still closed red: NVDA, AMD and META. All three sit in the AI-capex complex.
MSFT — $533.24. Up 2.03% to a 90-day high, closed in the upper third. Two green closes, up 3.7% on the week. We called this one below $509 and were wrong — the rate repricing lifted software duration instead of crushing it. Structure over story, and the structure here is higher lows.
V — $382.88. Closed at the session high, sixth straight green close, up 6.6% over five sessions. Sits 0.7% below the 52-week high at $385.57. The bid is real.
TSLA — $384.52. Best move on the board at +2.54%, and a fresh 90-day high. But it gapped 1.95% and closed mid-range. Follow-through matters more than the number.
AMZN — $260.08. Up 2.37%, sixth consecutive green close, finished in the upper third. Quiet grinder.
AAPL — $334.70. Gapped down 2.56% and clawed back to close at 99% of the day's range. Down on the session, but buyers showed up at $330.71. Volume 1.3M — heaviest on the board.
GOOGL — $351.19. Up 0.83% but closed in the lower third after gapping 0.9%. Our $335 fade never triggered — the name has posted two green closes and is up 2.6% over five sessions. Wrong level, wrong direction.
JPM — $332.77. Up 0.41% and closed at the session high. Still down 6.0% over 30 sessions and only 2.0% above the 90-day low.
META — $720.53. Fourth consecutive red close. Gapped up, faded, finished mid-range.
What We're Changing
We press the fade in AI hardware and leave the cash-flow names alone. AMD below $600.00 within 10 sessions is the extension call. A close above NVDA $233.89 inside five sessions kills it — that would mean the gap-ups are getting bought again.
V above $385.57 within 10 sessions confirms the payments bid is independent of the yield move. Below $380.97 the six-day run is done.
What changes our mind on the whole frame: a soft September CPI print that pulls yields back off their highs. That re-rates the chips first and fastest.
Open Checklist
- AMD $611.02 — session low. Below it, the fade runs toward $600.00.
- NVDA $233.89 — session high. Above it on a close, the semi short is wrong.
- V $385.57 — 52-week high. A close through it and the payments bid is confirmed.