The US chip selloff is now an export product. South Korea's KOSPI slid 6.0% in early Tuesday trade, with MSCI's broad Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index down 2.0%, as Bloomberg reported Asian equities set to fall on chipmaker weakness ahead of US inflation data.
Monday's domestic print was the source. AMD closed $586.85, down 3.49% and at 1% of its day's range. That is a close on the low — the ugliest kind.
The Call
Semis stay offered into the CPI release, and the rest of megacap is not following them down.
| Symbol | Close | Change | Day range | 52-week range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $225.87 | -3.41 (-1.49%) | $224.90–$228.84 | $164.27–$243.37 |
| AMD | $586.85 | -21.25 (-3.49%) | $586.63–$601.34 | $188.22–$658.52 |
| V | $390.83 | +5.37 (+1.39%) | $385.50–$391.38 | $293.89–$391.38 |
| JPM | $334.25 | +1.26 (+0.38%) | $333.60–$336.16 | $279.10–$366.50 |
| TSLA | $378.96 | -3.74 (-0.98%) | $378.54–$382.46 | $297.38–$498.83 |
| META | $750.50 | +31.83 (+4.43%) | $727.93–$751.53 | $520.26–$779.82 |
| AMZN | $261.39 | -1.04 (-0.40%) | $260.12–$263.69 | $196.00–$287.20 |
| GOOGL | $355.82 | +4.16 (+1.18%) | $351.74–$356.43 | $239.71–$408.61 |
| MSFT | $542.24 | +7.16 (+1.34%) | $535.72–$542.24 | $349.20–$553.72 |
| AAPL | $340.58 | +3.93 (+1.17%) | $337.62–$342.62 | $243.42–$345.34 |
Six of ten large caps closed green Monday. The selling is contained to the chip complex, not the index. Our AMD below $600 call filled at $586.85 — that one is done.
AMD underperformed META by 7.9 percentage points in a single session. Same tape, opposite flow.
Risk Sheet
- AMD $586.63 — Monday's low and the fourth consecutive red close. Below it, the widely watched $575 round number is next. A reclaim of $601.34 ends the fade.
- NVDA $224.90 — Session low, fourth straight red close, down 4.8% over five sessions. Below that, $220 is the level the desk is watching. Our $233.89 reclaim call is still open but looking thin.
- MSFT $542.24 — Closed at the absolute high of the day and the 90-day high. We called this below $509 and were wrong — the duration selling never arrived. Buyers kept paying up. Above $544.95, the 52-week high at $553.72 is in play.
- V $390.83 — Seventh consecutive green close, finishing 0.1% below its 52-week high. The strongest internal on the board.
- TSLA $378.96 — Down 0.98%, closed in the lower third. No chip exposure, but it went with the sellers anyway.
- JPM $334.25 — Up 0.38% but closed in the lower third. Goldman and Wells beat Tuesday morning, so bank flow is the swing factor.
The Outlier
META added 4.43% to $750.50. It gapped up 1.3%, then ran all day and shut at 96% of its range. Biggest move on the board, by a wide margin.
That is the name that does not fit. Chips were the funding source Monday — capital came out of silicon and went into the platform layer. META is up 29.9% over 30 sessions and sits 3.8% below its 52-week high.
The consensus read is that AI infrastructure spending is getting repriced. That is half of it. The less obvious piece is that the applications side is absorbing the money, not giving it back — GOOGL closed up 1.18% in the upper third, and AAPL finished up 1.17% at $340.58, filling the gap-down we flagged last week.
Does it matter? Only if it holds through CPI. If inflation runs hot, the multiple compression hits platforms too. Then the rotation stops being a rotation.
What would flip us: AMD closing back above $601.34 with volume. That would mark Monday as a flush, not the continuation. Absent that, the chip tape stays heavy.
Tomorrow
- NVDA $224.90 — breaks lower.
- META $754.25 — breakout trigger.