The semiconductor selloff did not spread. That is the session's actual information.
Seven of ten megacaps closed green Tuesday. Only AMD, NVDA and TSLA finished red.
The catalyst was China's memory push, with SK Hynix, SanDisk and Micron all lower premarket. Chips wore it. Nothing else did.
The Call
Megacap software and payments hold into Wednesday's CPI print. Chips stay offered until NVDA reclaims $226.60.
| Symbol | Close | Change | Day range | 52-week range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | $587.14 | -7.10 (-1.19%) | $570.88–$593.22 | $188.22–$658.52 |
| V | $393.14 | +3.87 (+0.99%) | $390.70–$394.65 | $293.89–$394.65 |
| JPM | $338.72 | +4.42 (+1.32%) | $331.20–$344.36 | $279.10–$366.50 |
| TSLA | $376.26 | -1.77 (-0.47%) | $371.41–$376.60 | $297.38–$498.83 |
| META | $766.31 | +23.35 (+3.14%) | $734.97–$771.15 | $520.26–$779.82 |
| AMZN | $260.98 | +1.45 (+0.56%) | $259.23–$262.81 | $196.00–$287.20 |
| GOOGL | $356.04 | +3.32 (+0.94%) | $351.68–$358.55 | $239.71–$408.61 |
| NVDA | $224.77 | -1.55 (-0.68%) | $223.09–$226.60 | $164.27–$243.37 |
| MSFT | $547.30 | +6.15 (+1.14%) | $544.33–$551.13 | $349.20–$553.72 |
| AAPL | $346.41 | +5.44 (+1.60%) | $341.12–$348.11 | $243.42–$348.11 |
The damage sits inside one complex. Three names closed at fresh 90-day highs on the same day.
Priority Board
- META — $766.31. Opened 0.85% below the prior close, then ran to $771.15. Closed in the upper third of the range. The move coincided with reporting on a new AI model family. Invalidation: $734.97.
- AAPL — $346.41. Set a 52-week high at $348.11 and closed 0.5% below it. Second green close, up 4.1% over five sessions. Invalidation: $341.12.
- MSFT — $547.30. Fourth consecutive green close and a 90-day high. We called this below $509 and were wrong. The duration selling we expected never arrived — buyers kept lifting through $540.
- AMD — $587.14. Gapped down 2.79%, bottomed at $570.88, closed in the upper third. Still down 10.8% over five sessions. A reclaim of $593.22 ends the fade.
- NVDA — $224.77. Fifth straight red close, finishing mid-range on the heaviest volume on the board. Invalidation: $226.60.
- V — $393.14. Eighth consecutive green close, 0.4% under the 52-week high at $394.65. Our $385.57 breakout call is now filled and closed out.
- JPM — $338.72. Gapped up 1.66% on better-than-expected bank earnings, tagged $344.36, then gave back more than half. Closed near the middle of the range. The follow-through is unproven.
META has added 33.9% over 30 sessions. NVDA has added 1.8%. That spread is the whole story of this market's leadership rotation.
Exposure Check
- Working: the payments and software bid is real. V, MSFT and AAPL all closed at 90-day highs. No distribution in any of the three.
- Not working: anything levered to memory pricing. AMD and NVDA have now given back the early-October advance.
- Still open: our AMD below $575 and NVDA below $221 calls run through Oct 20. Both remain live.
- Changed: META above $766.41 missed by ten cents on the close. We are rolling the level up to the 52-week high at $779.82.
- TSLA is the quiet problem. Two red closes and 24.6% below its 52-week high, with no chip exposure to blame.
What Breaks This
A hot CPI print that drags MSFT under $544.33 and AAPL under $341.12. At that point the chip weakness stops being sector-specific.
Boston Fed's Susan Collins has reiterated support for another cut. A broad-based inflation read takes that off the table and the whole board re-prices.
Pre-Open Watch
- NVDA $226.60 — fade below.
- META $779.82 — press above.
- AAPL $341.12 — hold.