Wednesday's July CPI is the only binary on this week's calendar. Everything ahead of it is positioning.
Friday's close was a bet on a cool print. NVDA finished at $223.89 on 18.1M shares, in the upper third of its range. The two names that got hit — Visa and Alphabet — both closed in the bottom fifth of theirs.
PPI follows Thursday. Retail sales Friday. Three prints, one week, and the inflation source is not domestic demand.
Verdict
High beta is priced for disinflation and the consumer names are not. If CPI cooperates, NVDA works toward $230.00 — a hot print sends it back through $220.69 and Friday's bid was payrolls noise.
| Symbol | Close | Change | Day range | 52-week range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | $313.29 | +0.88 (+0.28%) | $310.76–$314.79 | $216.58–$344.57 |
| JPM | $357.53 | +1.23 (+0.35%) | $353.46–$358.84 | $279.10–$363.00 |
| META | $591.97 | +2.07 (+0.35%) | $585.62–$598.64 | $520.26–$796.25 |
| GOOGL | $354.33 | -3.42 (-0.96%) | $353.83–$358.89 | $194.33–$408.61 |
| MSFT | $499.85 | -0.01 (0.00%) | $498.75–$505.11 | $349.20–$553.72 |
| V | $362.59 | -7.88 (-2.13%) | $361.54–$368.57 | $293.89–$373.97 |
| TSLA | $328.59 | +9.06 (+2.84%) | $321.30–$333.71 | $297.38–$498.83 |
| AMZN | $274.44 | +2.18 (+0.80%) | $272.75–$278.31 | $196.00–$287.20 |
| NVDA | $223.89 | +4.90 (+2.24%) | $220.69–$224.76 | $164.07–$236.54 |
| AMD | $483.27 | -6.01 (-1.23%) | $476.15–$498.82 | $149.22–$584.73 |
The Board
- NVDA $223.89 — up 2.24% after a 1.18% gap up. Volume was the session's real signal, not the price. Now 5.3% below the $236.54 52-week high.
- AMD $483.27 — gapped up 1.84%, tagged $498.82, closed down 1.23%. Gave back $15.55 from the high on 3.3M shares. Cleanest warning on the board.
- TSLA $328.59 — biggest mover at +2.84%, but still 34.1% below its high. $333.71 is the level breakout traders are watching.
- V $362.59 — down 2.13%, closed near the low on 1M shares. Friday's retail sales print is its event.
- GOOGL $354.33 — down 0.96% and the weakest close location of the ten. Bottom tenth of the range.
- AMZN $274.44 — up 0.80% but faded from $278.31 into the lower third. Sits 4.4% under the $287.18 high.
- MSFT $499.85 — a penny lower. Tagged $505.11 and gave every cent back. The $500 round number is the marker here.
- JPM $357.53 — upper third of the range on 774,771 shares. Thin tape, don't lean on it.
NVIDIA traded 18.1M shares Friday — more than AMD, Tesla and Alphabet combined.
Six of ten closed higher. The three red names were payments, semis and search — no defensive tilt in the selling.
The Washington Post reported Saturday that the Pentagon is pushing arms makers to lift output as the Iran conflict drains stockpiles. That is a goods-price input, and it is why Wednesday's number carries more risk than usual.
What We're Changing
Two of our last ten calls hit. That is a bad number and it changes how we size this one.
The Amazon breakout call above $287.18 never filled. Amazon has not been able to press the high, and Friday's fade off $278.31 says the buyers are not there yet. We are not re-upping it.
Keeping the NVDA $220.69 invalidation from Friday — still live through Aug 11. Adding $230.00 as the upside confirmation. That is where this argument lives or dies.
The AMD $476.15 downside call stays on. Friday's reversal off $498.82 supports it.
What flips us: a CPI print that runs hot and takes NVDA under the Friday low on real volume. Then the semis were front-running a number that never came.
Open Checklist
- NVDA $230.00 — above it, the disinflation bid is confirmed.
- NVDA $220.69 — below it, Friday was noise.
- AMD $476.15 — below it, the gap-up is fully erased.