A flat July producer price report put the S&P 500 at a record close of 7,798.99. Rate-hike risk came off, and one name took the money — AMD +6.50% to $514.40.
Seven of the ten large caps on our board closed lower. That is a narrow record.
Verdict
The disinflation bid is real but highly selective. If AMD holds $500.00, the semis rotation carries into next week.
| Symbol | Close | Change | Day range | 52-week range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM | $362.82 | -0.29 (-0.08%) | $361.50–$365.86 | $279.10–$366.50 |
| AMZN | $262.64 | -2.49 (-0.94%) | $262.43–$265.80 | $196.00–$287.20 |
| AMD | $514.40 | +31.38 (+6.50%) | $483.27–$514.61 | $149.22–$584.73 |
| MSFT | $495.35 | -1.53 (-0.31%) | $493.92–$500.00 | $349.20–$553.72 |
| TSLA | $342.35 | +2.39 (+0.70%) | $335.39–$351.26 | $297.38–$498.83 |
| GOOGL | $345.86 | -0.50 (-0.14%) | $344.50–$350.41 | $196.60–$408.61 |
| V | $363.92 | -1.53 (-0.42%) | $362.76–$366.63 | $293.89–$373.97 |
| AAPL | $305.94 | +0.68 (+0.22%) | $304.30–$307.47 | $223.78–$344.57 |
| META | $589.76 | -5.21 (-0.88%) | $589.33–$601.80 | $520.26–$796.25 |
| NVDA | $225.18 | -0.12 (-0.05%) | $224.50–$227.48 | $164.07–$236.54 |
Below $500.00, Friday was a single-name event and nothing more.
Seven of the ten names closed in the lower third of their session range. AMD closed in the top one percent of its.
The Board
AMD — $514.40, +6.50%. Gapped up 0.95%, ran to $514.61, closed 21 cents off it. Volume 775,010. Now 12% below the $584.73 52-week high.
NVDA — $225.18, -0.05%. Gapped up 0.65% and faded all day. AMD outperformed it by 6.55 percentage points. Our $230.00 upside call expired — the marginal dollar went to AMD instead. Consensus owns NVDA for the AI trade. At 4.8% below its 52-week high, that is priced.
AMZN — $262.64, -0.94%. Weakest structure on the board. Closed at 6% of its range, near the $262.43 low. $260.00 is the widely watched round number below.
META — $589.76, -0.88%. Tagged $601.80 and gave back $12.04. Closed near the session floor. Our $575.00 downside case never printed — buyers defended well above it, and $589.33 is now the reference low.
JPM — $362.82, -0.08%. Sits 1% below the $366.50 52-week high. Low of $361.50 held. Our below-$361.29 call expires unfilled.
TSLA — $342.35, +0.70%. Tagged $351.26 and gave back $8.91. Mid-range close on 1.1M shares. No conviction either way.
MSFT — $495.35, -0.31%. Rejected at $500.00 exactly. Lower-third close. Goldman Sachs flagged a possible earnings bubble in tech rather than a valuation bubble — the software complex traded like it.
V — $363.92, -0.42%. High of $366.63 came within 34 cents of our $366.97 trigger from Thursday. Still live through Aug 18.
GOOGL — $345.86, -0.14%. Faded from $350.41. Lower-third close, no damage.
AAPL — $305.94, +0.22%. Middle of the range. Nothing to trade.
What We're Changing
Our AMD below-$480.00 call is caught offside. A $514.40 close kills it outright.
We flip the name to upside watch. $500.00 is the invalidation, not the entry zone.
The gold bid on a weaker dollar and cemented rate-hold expectations is the same trade as the record equity close. Both fade if the next inflation print runs hot. That is what reverses this view.
Open Checklist
- AMD $520.00 — a close above extends the breakout. Below $500.00, it is done.
- AMZN $260.00 — a close below confirms the weakest structure on the board.
- JPM $366.50 — a close above is a new 52-week high.