Federal Reserve
44 articles tagged Federal Reserve, newest first. Every price call in these articles was recorded when published and later checked against market data — see the track record.
Waller Flips the Rate Trade — TSLA +5.41%, Nine of Ten Megacaps Close Green
Fed Governor Waller backed holding rates steady and September hike odds dropped. Tesla closed $376.34, up 5.41%, and only AMD finished red on our board.
Waller Killed the Hike Trade and Nine of Ten Megacaps Gapped Up — AMD Still Closed Red
A dovish Waller reset September rate-hike odds and nine of the ten largest names gapped higher. Tesla added 5.41%; AMD closed lower for a third straight session...
Broadcom's AI Targets Lifted NVDA $6.81. AMD Lost $3.10 on the Same Headline.
An AI demand signal that moves the incumbent and not the second source is a statement about who captures the incremental dollar. NVDA closed $224.25; AMD closed...
Oil Went to $93 and Crypto Didn't Act Like a Hedge
Seven of eight majors closed red as hawkish Fed bets and U.S. strikes on Iran hit the same book. Ethereum lost $2,400 and is the name carrying the breakdown ris...
A Fed Hike Is Back on the Table, and Apple Added $8.28 While Eight of Ten Fell
Traders are pricing rate-hike odds after Warsh's hawkish turn. The megacap complex shed $49.50 a share in declines, and Apple and Meta absorbed almost none of i...
Iran Escalation Plus a Hawkish Barclays: Security Spend Gets Defended, SaaS Multiples Don't
Stocks fell Monday as US-Iran tensions flared and long yields rose. Barclays now sees two hikes in 2026. Enterprise software splits into duration risk and non-d...
Bitcoin Closed August Twenty-Four Dollars Short of the Line Everyone Was Watching
September hike odds sit at 58%, not the near-lock some desks quoted. BTC finished at $78,315.99 — a whisker under the reversal trigger — while DOGE and AVAX too...
Warsh Went Hawkish and the Duration Trade Split in Half: NVIDIA -4.58%, Amazon +3.95%
A hawkish Fed debut was supposed to compress every long-duration multiple equally. Instead the capex-heavy names took the entire hit while the platforms closed...
Five of Eight Majors Sit Within a Tenth of a Percent of a 90-Day Extreme — and Nobody Moved
A flat July PPI took the Fed's next hike off the table, yet the dollar closed fractionally firmer against nearly every major. Compression this tight at the edge...
Hormuz Is Now a Fertilizer Story, Not Just a Crude One — and Gold Moved Eleven Cents
The blockade has spread down the barrel chain into petrochemicals, plastics and industrial gases. Gold, the asset that supposedly prices this, closed at $4,375....
Dhaka's $37 Billion Rebuild Met a Softer Fed — And the Kiwi Still Finished Last
Fed hike odds fell to 40% and Asian reserve managers exhaled, yet the dollar's retreat was confined to the euro, franc and yen. NZD/USD dropped 0.27% and led th...
Eight Megacaps Gapped Up, Eight Closed Below the Open: The Inflation Relief Was Sold
Soft US inflation data cut Fed hike odds to 40% and lifted the Kospi 4.48%, yet only NVIDIA and JPMorgan held their opening gains. Seven of ten megacaps closed...
Weak Payrolls, Record Close: NVDA Took the Bid at $223.89, AMD Gave Back $15.55
Negative July payrolls killed the September hike trade and the S&P printed a record. The money went to high beta — Visa fell 2.13% and closed near its low.
Payrolls Shed 23,000 Jobs and Visa Fell 2.13% — That Pairing Matters More Than the Rally
A soft July jobs report took a Fed hike off the table and lifted Tesla 2.84% and NVIDIA 2.24%. Visa, the cleanest read on consumer spending, closed down 2.13%.
Every Name That Gapped Down Closed Higher — The Market Is Un-Pricing a September Hike
Meta added 6.02% and Apple fell 1.78%. Both decliners opened higher; all three names that gapped lower closed higher. That inversion is what a hike being un-pri...
The RBI Chose Plumbing Over Policy: $40.8 Billion In, Rates Unchanged
India's central bank mobilized $40.82 billion through a concessional swap window while preparing to leave the repo rate alone — a currency defense that never to...
The Fed Held, Citadel Was Wrong, and Bitcoin Paid Out $811
BTC closed at $64,796.01, up 1.27%, after the Fed left rates unchanged. Seven of eight majors green. That's relief money, not conviction money.
The Fed Held and the Long End Tightened Anyway — Microsoft Gave Back $9.78 From Its High
Three hawkish dissents, a steeper curve, and eight of the ten largest US equities lower. Microsoft printed $401.24 on unchanged capex guidance and closed at $39...
A Fed Hike Would Reprice SaaS Before It Touches Security Budgets
Citadel Securities is telling clients the Fed hikes Wednesday. For enterprise software, a 25bp surprise is a duration event — and the security line item is the...
Citadel Is Betting on a Hike and Bitcoin Rallied Into It Anyway
BTC closed up 0.93% at $64,507.54 on the eve of an FOMC where markets price a 37.9% chance of a rate hike. Somebody is wrong.