Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated support for holding rates steady on disinflation. Market-implied odds of a September hike dropped, and equities repriced duration in one session.
Nine of ten names on our board closed green. The longest-duration assets took the biggest bid.
The Call
This was a rate trade, and the leadership confirms it — high-beta growth and the bank both caught a bid. If JPM clears $366.50, the rate-relief repricing has legs. Below TSLA $365.92, the whole move was a one-day gap fill.
| Symbol | Close | Change | Day range | 52-week range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | $328.22 | +3.26 (+1.00%) | $324.16–$330.79 | $225.95–$344.57 |
| MSFT | $510.05 | +13.23 (+2.66%) | $501.40–$515.55 | $349.20–$553.72 |
| NVDA | $228.50 | +4.09 (+1.82%) | $224.77–$230.40 | $164.07–$236.54 |
| GOOGL | $342.33 | +5.21 (+1.55%) | $340.22–$344.56 | $224.79–$408.61 |
| AMZN | $258.93 | +3.95 (+1.55%) | $256.04–$259.50 | $196.00–$287.20 |
| META | $610.80 | +17.95 (+3.03%) | $604.43–$619.43 | $520.26–$790.80 |
| TSLA | $376.34 | +19.33 (+5.41%) | $365.92–$384.01 | $297.38–$498.83 |
| JPM | $362.11 | +5.89 (+1.65%) | $356.89–$362.82 | $279.10–$366.50 |
| V | $378.70 | +0.30 (+0.08%) | $376.88–$382.06 | $293.89–$385.57 |
| AMD | $456.23 | -0.83 (-0.18%) | $440.51–$459.73 | $149.22–$584.73 |
Priority Board
TSLA — $376.34, +5.41%. Gapped up 2.52% and never filled it. Second straight green close and a fresh 90-day high. The session low at $365.92 is the invalidation. Still 24.6% below the 52-week high.
JPM — $362.11, +1.65%. Closed in the upper third of the range on the strongest close location we tracked. Now 1.2% below the 52-week high of $366.50. That is the cleanest rate-sensitive tell on the board.
META — $610.80, +3.03%. Third consecutive green close and a new 90-day high. Gapped up 2.01%, tagged $619.43, then faded to a mid-range finish. That fade matters — $604.43 is the reference low.
MSFT — $510.05, +2.66%. Reclaimed the $500 round number and closed mid-range. Up 31.1% over 30 sessions. $501.40 was both the open and the low — that is the line.
NVDA — $228.50, +1.82%. Second straight green close, and it printed the 90-day high at the bell. Volume was heaviest on the board at 3.7M shares. Only 3.4% below the 52-week high of $236.54.
AMZN — $258.93, +1.55%. Upper-third close, second green session. Our sub-$251.93 call is offside and unlikely to fill.
AMD — $456.23, -0.18%. The lone red name. Third consecutive down close. It traded down to $440.51 and bought back hard into the finish.
AMD's intraday span was $19.22 — the widest on the board — and it still closed red.
V — $378.70, +0.08%. Flat print, lower-middle close, 1.8% under the 52-week high.
Exposure Check
- Working: The NVDA above $227.95 call filled — the close cleared it.
- Wrong, and we own it: We called MSFT below $475 and it never came. We then called sub-$493.83 and Microsoft printed $510.05 instead. Both wrong. Fading a name up 31.1% in 30 sessions was the error.
- Wrong: We called V below $355. Visa never cracked and now sits near its highs. Same mistake — shorting strength without a break.
- Changing: No downside levels on rate-sensitive growth until Waller's read is challenged.
- The risk to all of it: CNBC reports diesel at a record high as Ukraine and Iran conflicts knock out refining capacity. A hot inflation print reverses this entire session. That is what changes our mind.
- Watching: The AMD spread. NVDA outperformed it by 2.0 percentage points today. If that gap keeps widening, the semi bid is narrow.
Pre-Open Watch
- JPM $366.50 — press
- TSLA $365.92 — hold
- AMD $440.51 — fade