Home Depot's Chairman, President and CEO took a temporary medical leave, and the stock closed down 3.02%. Cencora fell 5.92% after confirming non-prime Walgreens pharmaceutical volume is moving to competitors. Company-specific headlines got hit hard on Wednesday — and the in-line inflation print rescued none of them.
The S&P 500 added 0.24% to 7,746.68. Underneath that, seven of the ten names on our board finished lower.
The Call
Dispersion is what's getting paid right now, and mega-cap software is the wrong side of it. META at $578.88 is the cleanest short-term read on the board — it gapped up 0.38% and closed at 2% of the day's range.
| Symbol | Close | Change | Day range | 52-week range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $224.11 | +6.61 (+3.04%) | $220.22–$225.10 | $164.07–$236.54 |
| TSLA | $327.46 | -5.35 (-1.61%) | $323.68–$335.46 | $297.38–$498.83 |
| META | $578.88 | -20.25 (-3.38%) | $578.25–$604.14 | $520.26–$796.25 |
| AMD | $482.85 | +8.52 (+1.80%) | $481.00–$491.57 | $149.22–$584.73 |
| MSFT | $492.45 | -11.36 (-2.25%) | $491.54–$501.34 | $349.20–$553.72 |
| AMZN | $267.34 | -4.93 (-1.81%) | $267.10–$273.46 | $196.00–$287.20 |
| V | $359.48 | -3.34 (-0.92%) | $358.32–$363.18 | $293.89–$373.97 |
| AAPL | $302.20 | -2.71 (-0.89%) | $300.59–$305.61 | $223.78–$344.57 |
| GOOGL | $343.57 | -0.23 (-0.07%) | $340.90–$346.42 | $196.60–$408.61 |
| JPM | $365.22 | +3.18 (+0.88%) | $361.29–$366.09 | $279.10–$366.09 |
If AI silicon holds its bid, the rotation continues. Below NVDA $220.22, Wednesday was noise.
Priority Board
- META — $578.88, -3.38%. Opened $601.40, tagged $604.14, closed near the low. Gave back $25.26 from the high. Now 27.3% below the 52-week high. Invalidation: a close back above $604.14.
- NVDA — $224.11, +3.04%. Gapped up 1.61% and closed at 80% of its range on 4M shares. Volume confirmed. Sits 5.3% below the $236.54 52-week high. Invalidation: the $220.22 session low.
- MSFT — $492.45, -2.25%. Opened at exactly $500.00, failed, closed at 9% of the range. Adobe fell 3.02% on the same day, reportedly on profit-taking and AI-monetization debate. Software is the funding source. Invalidation: a reclaim of $501.34.
- JPM — $365.22, +0.88%. Printed a new 52-week high at $366.09 intraday and closed at 82% of the range. Best structure of the ten. Invalidation: $361.29.
- AMD — $482.85, +1.80%. Gapped up 3% and gave most of it back — closed at 18% of the range. NVDA outperformed by 1.24 percentage points. The spread favors the leader.
- AMZN — $267.34, -1.81%. Gapped up 0.35% and closed at 4% of the range. Same failure pattern as META, smaller size.
Teradyne rose 7.00% on AI semiconductor test demand and HPE gained 5.28% on enterprise AI infrastructure. The bid is real — it just isn't in software.
Exposure Check
- Working: AI silicon and hardware. NVDA closing in the upper fifth of its range with 4M shares behind it is the day's only conviction print.
- Working: JPM. A 52-week high close-to-high is a level we respect, not fade.
- Not working: Every name that gapped up and closed near its low. META, AMZN and AMD all did it. That's supply on strength.
- Changing: Our NVDA below $220.69 call confirmed at $217.46 on Monday — see the Monday note. That level flipped Wednesday. The $230.00 upside call stays live into Friday.
- Owning a miss: We called META below the $520.26 52-week low and it never came close. What changed — the selling has been orderly and range-bound, not a breakdown. We're marking resistance at $604.14 instead of hunting the low.
- What flips us: A close back above $501.34 in MSFT with volume. That would say the software de-rating was one session of profit-taking and the rotation call is wrong.
- Consumer watch: Two idiosyncratic blowups in one session is a pattern worth pricing. V at $359.48 held under the $360.00 round number for a second look.
Pre-Open Watch
- META $575.00 — fade. A close below within three sessions extends the break.
- NVDA $230.00 — press. Above it within five sessions and $236.54 is next.
- MSFT $489.00 — fade. Below it within five sessions and the software unwind has legs.