The catalyst was oil. CNBC's Jim Cramer said falling crude revived the market Friday, then flagged next week's Federal Reserve meeting as the real test. Every name on our board closed green.
That breadth is not the story. Where those names closed inside their sessions is.
Verdict
Half the board finished off its highs, and the faders were the rate-sensitive names. We trust the closes that printed on the high — GOOGL and AAPL — and treat the rest as gap-and-drift into the Fed.
| Symbol | Close | Change | Day range | 52-week range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | $513.75 | +10.15 (+2.02%) | $501.58–$521.00 | $149.85–$584.73 |
| V | $369.62 | +2.41 (+0.66%) | $368.00–$371.59 | $293.89–$385.57 |
| JPM | $356.51 | +2.95 (+0.83%) | $354.83–$360.00 | $279.10–$366.50 |
| TSLA | $367.06 | +3.50 (+0.96%) | $361.61–$368.66 | $297.38–$498.83 |
| META | $653.90 | +9.52 (+1.48%) | $648.64–$664.09 | $520.26–$790.80 |
| AMZN | $256.39 | +4.50 (+1.79%) | $253.29–$256.90 | $196.00–$287.20 |
| GOOGL | $342.74 | +10.14 (+3.05%) | $335.05–$342.97 | $235.84–$408.61 |
| NVDA | $220.38 | +2.02 (+0.93%) | $219.04–$222.00 | $164.27–$236.54 |
| MSFT | $495.00 | +2.56 (+0.52%) | $492.62–$498.83 | $349.20–$553.72 |
| AAPL | $335.82 | +9.25 (+2.83%) | $326.57–$336.21 | $226.65–$344.57 |
Reports out of London tied the session's equity strength to US data that lifted odds of a Fed hike. A hawkish repricing is not a broad risk bid. It is a sorting mechanism.
The Board
- GOOGL — $342.74, +3.05%. Biggest mover, gapped up 0.75%, closed at 97% of the day's range. Our $345.00 call is still live and still the line.
- AAPL — $335.82, +2.83%. Second-heaviest volume on the board at 702,431 shares. Closed at 96% of its range and 2.5% under the 52-week high of $344.57.
- NVDA — $220.38, +0.93%. Volume 913,981 — the heaviest name on the board by a wide margin. It gapped up 1.32%, closed below its open and mid-range. Heavy volume, no result.
- JPM — $356.51, +0.83%. Gapped up 1.33%, traded $360.00, closed in the lower third. We called JPM above $366.50 last week and missed. Rising hike odds are no longer an automatic bank bid.
- AMD — $513.75, +2.02%. Up 12.6% over five sessions and 2.1% under the 90-day high of $525.00. Closed mid-range after touching $521.00.
- META — $653.90, +1.48%. Gapped up 1.4%, then gave back most of it. Closed at 34% of the range, 0.4% under the 90-day high of $656.75. Weakest shape on the board relative to its move.
- AMZN — $256.39, +1.79%. Second green close, finished in the upper third. Still down 5.6% over 30 sessions.
- TSLA — $367.06, +0.96%. We called it below $351.38 and were wrong. What changed was the 30-session trend — up 17.9% — which never broke.
- MSFT — $495.00, +0.52%. Smallest gain, closed below its open, down 3.0% over five sessions. Laggard.
- V — $369.62, +0.66%. Second green close, mid-range finish, still 3.8% under the 90-day high of $384.06.
Five of ten names closed below their own opening print despite finishing green. Rising-rate odds sorted the board.
What We're Changing
Nothing on GOOGL or NVDA. Both calls run into next week unchanged.
We are adding Apple. A close above $340.01 clears the 90-day high and puts the 52-week mark in play. Below $334.14 the two-day push failed.
On JPM, the working line is $353.56 — Thursday's prior close. Back under it and the gap is fully unwound.
What flips us: a hawkish Fed outcome that holds the megacap gaps open instead of fading them. If the faders — META, JPM, MSFT — close on their highs next week, the sorting thesis is dead and breadth is real.
Open Checklist
- AAPL $340.01 — above, the breakout is confirmed.
- GOOGL $341.03 — below, Friday was a one-day squeeze.
- META $648.64 — below, the gap fade extends.