Risk-off went global overnight. Escalating US-Iran tensions pushed oil to its highest level in over a month, per Investing.com, and bonds sold off with it. South Korea's KOSPI plunged 4% Monday — roughly $144B erased — with SK Hynix and Samsung leading the damage. That puts semis directly in the blast radius.

Yet the futures board disagrees. Barchart reports September Nasdaq 100 futures up +0.59% and S&P futures up +0.30%, buoyed by a chip rebound. One side is wrong. The answer prints at NVDA $197.97.

The Call

We treat the futures bounce as unconfirmed until NVDA holds $197.97 in cash trading. Korea's crash ran through memory and chips — the exact complex that flushed here Thursday — so structure over story until the open proves the bid.

India confirmed the mood. The Sensex fell 442.93 points to 77,708.52 as crude and West Asia tensions weighed, per ANI. This is a global de-risking event with one long-duration pressure point: expensive US tech.

Priority Board

  • NVDA — $202.81. The contagion proxy. Korea's crash was chip-led — this name answers for it first. The cushion above the $197.97 low is just 2.4%. Below $197.97, the $200 line breaks and the Korea shock lands here. Above $206.65, the futures rebound confirms.
  • AMD — $495.76. The $460.21 reversal low is the invalidation for the entire semi bounce case. A close above $505.88 would confirm buyers absorbed the macro shock. Between those levels — no edge, wide range, respect it.
  • AAPL — $333.74. The defensive expression. It closed 0.37% below the $334.99 52-week high while everything else bled. In a risk-off session, this is where flow hides. Below $329.00, even the safe-haven trade fails.
  • MSFT — $393.82. Already lost the $400 psychological line Thursday. Below the $389.39 low, the next leg opens with nothing anchored until $349.20. Bulls need $398.39 reclaimed before this chart matters.

Thursday's board closed 9-of-10 red before the US-Iran headlines even hit. The market was already de-risking — the oil spike just named the reason.

Exposure Check

  • Working: AAPL strength above $329.00. It was the only green close on a nine-red board and sits a fresh high away from open sky at $334.99.
  • Not working: Momentum longs in META ($646.01, needs $652.20 back) and TSLA ($380.84, below the $391.06 prior close). Both stay suspect until reclaimed.
  • Changing: Semi exposure gets cut fast if $197.97 fails on NVDA. An oil-driven inflation scare plus a Korea chip crash is two shots at the same complex — we don't need a third.
  • The expression: If the contagion view is right, it lives in the NVDA-versus-AAPL spread. Chips break down while the high holds — that spread widens, and it is the cleanest read on this event.

Pre-Open Watch

  • NVDA — $197.97 — hold
  • AMD — $460.21 — hold
  • AAPL — $334.99 — press