The Fed hiked. CNBC confirmed it — the first increase in three years, delivered with Treasury yields at their highest levels since 2007.
Equities did not sell off. They rotated. Six of ten names on our board closed green, and the four that didn't are the ones that pay you to wait.
Verdict
This was a rotation out of yield-sensitive cash-flow names and into semis and megacap growth. The level that decides whether it extends is V at $370.00 — a widely watched round number just under Wednesday's close.
| Symbol | Close | Change | Day range | 52-week range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | $521.58 | +17.38 (+3.45%) | $514.36–$527.19 | $149.85–$584.73 |
| AAPL | $333.58 | +2.24 (+0.68%) | $331.95–$335.47 | $236.32–$344.57 |
| MSFT | $494.01 | -3.11 (-0.63%) | $491.14–$495.92 | $349.20–$553.72 |
| NVDA | $215.80 | +3.63 (+1.71%) | $213.32–$216.30 | $164.27–$236.54 |
| GOOGL | $346.51 | +1.53 (+0.44%) | $343.77–$348.39 | $235.84–$408.61 |
| AMZN | $247.67 | -0.75 (-0.30%) | $246.73–$249.26 | $196.00–$287.20 |
| META | $678.99 | +8.75 (+1.30%) | $674.57–$685.21 | $520.26–$790.80 |
| TSLA | $363.70 | +7.12 (+2.00%) | $355.00–$365.09 | $297.38–$498.83 |
| JPM | $351.17 | -1.32 (-0.37%) | $348.69–$355.33 | $279.10–$366.50 |
| V | $372.24 | -3.38 (-0.90%) | $371.89–$375.38 | $293.89–$385.57 |
If Visa loses it, the dividend-complex de-rating that The Globe and Mail flagged is live. If Visa reclaims $375.38, the whole read was a one-day flinch.
The Names
AMD — $521.58, +3.45%. Biggest mover on the board. It gapped up 2.55% and held, closing mid-range after touching $527.19.
Now 0.7% below the 90-day high of $525.00. Our above-$525.00 call last week expired unfilled — the level is back in play, but it has already rejected once. Below $514.36 the gap is at risk.
AMD outran Visa by 4.35 percentage points on a rate-hike day. That is not what a defensive tape looks like.
V — $372.24, -0.90%. Second consecutive red close, and it finished at only 10% of the day's range. Weakest close location on the board by a wide margin.
We called Visa below $360.00 earlier this month and missed badly — the payments bid was firmer than we read it. What changed is the rate path. Visa now sits 3.5% below its 52-week high with sellers controlling the last hour.
META — $678.99, +1.30%. Fourth straight green close, and it settled exactly at the 90-day high. Our above-$678.80 call confirmed here.
Worth stating plainly: we were also short-biased on Meta below $638.71 last week and that was wrong. The trend has been up 15.5% over thirty sessions. Respect it. The session high of $685.21 is the next line.
NVDA — $215.80, +1.71%. Heaviest volume on the board at 901,592 shares, and it closed in the upper third. Two consecutive green closes, but still down 3.8% over five sessions.
JPM — $351.17, -0.37%. A bank that fell on a hike day. It traded $355.33 and faded, closing in the middle of the range and just 1.8% above its 90-day low of $345.02.
MSFT — $494.01, -0.63%. Two consecutive red closes. NVDA outperformed it by 2.34 points — the AI trade paid the chipmaker, not the cloud spender.
The Risk Sheet
- Hawkish follow-through overshoots. → AMD below $514.36 → the gap fills and the semis bid is a one-day event.
- Yield-sensitive selling broadens into the banks. → JPM below $348.69 → the 90-day low at $345.02 becomes the target level.
- Growth leadership rolls over. → META below $674.57 → the four-day green streak breaks and the 90-day-high print was exhaustion.
- The rotation reverses outright. → V back above $375.38 → the dividend-de-rating read is void and we drop it.
Calls, five sessions: Meta above $685.21. Visa below $370.00. JPM below $348.69. What kills all three is a dovish walk-back from the Fed on the path forward.
Tomorrow's Checklist
- AMD $525.00 resistance
- Visa $370.00 support
- Meta $685.21 trigger