Rate-hike odds rose, Iran risk simmered, and Bitcoin and Ethereum sold off. Large-cap equities did not follow.
NVDA closed $224.25, up 3.13%. Seven of ten names on our board finished green.
The Call
Risk-off stayed inside crypto and never crossed into the AI leaders. Above $227.95, the NVDA breakout is live. Below $452.35, the AMD slide extends.
| Symbol | Close | Change | Day range | 52-week range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | $325.03 | -0.10 (-0.03%) | $323.54–$328.36 | $225.95–$344.57 |
| MSFT | $496.74 | -4.28 (-0.85%) | $493.83–$500.34 | $349.20–$553.72 |
| AMD | $456.51 | -3.10 (-0.67%) | $452.35–$462.12 | $149.22–$584.73 |
| V | $378.50 | +5.82 (+1.56%) | $374.01–$380.19 | $293.89–$385.57 |
| JPM | $356.22 | +1.27 (+0.36%) | $353.86–$361.44 | $279.10–$366.50 |
| TSLA | $356.24 | +0.15 (+0.04%) | $349.98–$360.41 | $297.38–$498.83 |
| META | $592.93 | +14.39 (+2.49%) | $577.00–$600.33 | $520.26–$790.80 |
| AMZN | $254.93 | +0.01 (+0.00%) | $253.45–$256.20 | $196.00–$287.20 |
| GOOGL | $337.12 | +2.10 (+0.63%) | $332.93–$339.93 | $206.20–$408.61 |
| NVDA | $224.25 | +6.81 (+3.13%) | $218.48–$227.95 | $164.07–$236.54 |
Risk Sheet
- NVDA — $224.25. Gapped up 0.62% and closed in the upper third. Heaviest volume on the board at 5.3M shares. Volume confirmed it. Session high $227.95 is the level breakout traders are watching.
- META — $592.93, up 2.49%. Second straight green close. Tagged $600.33 and gave some back. Below $577.00 the two-day advance is gone.
- V — $378.50, up 1.56%. Now 1.8% below the 52-week high. Our August call for sub-$355.00 was flat wrong. Visa never broke — it added 6.4% over 30 sessions instead. We were fading strength.
- MSFT — $496.74. Third consecutive red close and the $500 round number is gone. Our below-$475.00 call expired unfilled. A 30.1% 30-session gain was the wrong thing to short. $493.83 is the reference low.
- JPM — $356.22. Gapped up 0.79%, tagged $361.44, then closed in the lower third. That is a fade, and $353.86 is the line under it.
- AAPL — $325.03, essentially unchanged. Lower-third close after a $328.36 print. Still 5.7% below the 52-week high.
- AMZN — $254.93, dead flat. Our sub-$251.93 call is still live through Sunday.
The Outlier
AMD closed $456.51, down 0.67%. It was the only major semi that missed the bid.
CNBC flagged Broadcom CEO Hock Tan's bullish long-term AI targets Thursday. The complex responded. AMD did not.
NVDA outperformed AMD by 3.80 percentage points in a single session. NVDA sits 5.2% below its 52-week high. AMD sits 21.9% below.
Two consecutive red closes now, and down 12.5% over 30 sessions. AMD is 6.4% above its 90-day low with $452.35 in the way.
What kills this read: AMD reclaiming $462.12 while NVDA stalls under $227.95. That would make Wednesday a rotation day, and the divergence call goes in the bin.
Tomorrow
- NVDA $227.95
- AMD $452.35
- MSFT $493.83