The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its cash rate to 4.85% on a split 6-3 vote. That is an 18-year high, and it landed on a market already marking down the AI build.
The desk's read is simple. Buyers paid for cash flow today and sold the names financing tomorrow's compute.
Verdict
Seven of ten names closed green, but breadth is not the signal here — AMD at $492.82 is. A 1.17% gap-up that finishes in the bottom 5% of the session range is a failed gap, and $491.83 is the level the desk is watching.
| Symbol | Close | Change | Day range | 52-week range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | $340.39 | -4.24 (-1.23%) | $339.67–$343.75 | $243.42–$351.73 |
| MSFT | $524.24 | +2.33 (+0.45%) | $520.51–$529.63 | $349.20–$551.15 |
| NVDA | $207.73 | +3.09 (+1.51%) | $206.76–$209.97 | $164.27–$243.37 |
| GOOGL | $283.05 | +3.21 (+1.15%) | $282.37–$286.96 | $270.70–$408.61 |
| AMZN | $251.61 | +11.26 (+4.68%) | $242.36–$253.80 | $196.00–$287.20 |
| META | $610.35 | -4.64 (-0.75%) | $609.99–$621.59 | $520.26–$779.82 |
| TSLA | $412.51 | +12.70 (+3.18%) | $397.61–$414.22 | $297.38–$498.83 |
| JPM | $340.61 | +3.57 (+1.06%) | $339.96–$342.37 | $279.10–$366.50 |
| V | $425.35 | +11.76 (+2.84%) | $415.51–$425.54 | $293.89–$425.54 |
| AMD | $492.82 | -11.98 (-2.37%) | $491.83–$512.81 | $188.22–$658.52 |
The Names
AMD — $492.82, -2.37%. Opened $510.71, high $512.81, closed near the low. Second straight red close. Down 19.3% over thirty sessions and 25.2% below the 52-week high. Our sub-$500 call filled here. Above $512.81 the gap is repaired and the view changes.
V — $425.35, +2.84%. New 52-week high, closed at 98% of the day's range. Fourth consecutive green close. Up 15.4% over thirty sessions. Below $423.22, the rotation read gets weaker.
AMZN +4.68% against AMD -2.37% — a 7.05-point spread in a single session.
AMZN — $251.61, +4.68%. Biggest mover on the board. Gapped up 1.14% and closed in the upper third. Still 12.4% below the 52-week high at $287.20. $253.80 is the near resistance.
TSLA — $412.51, +3.18%. Closed at its 90-day high and at 90% of the range. Up 10.1% over thirty sessions. $397.61 is the session floor bulls need.
AAPL — $340.39, -1.23%. Gapped down 0.57% and closed in the lower third. Second straight red close. The decline coincided with reporting that Apple beat on earnings and sold off anyway. That is the tell — a beat that does not get paid.
GOOGL — $283.05, +1.15%. Green on the screen, ugly underneath. High $286.96, closed at 15% of the range, just 0.7% above the 90-day low of $280.97. Down 20.4% over thirty sessions.
JPM — $340.61, +1.06%. Our $349 call did not fill. The financials bid stalled 7.1% under the 52-week high, and the follow-through never showed.
The Risk Sheet
- Global tightening extends. The RBA's split vote says the hiking debate is live → MSFT below $521.62 → the high-multiple bid has gone.
- Chip contagion. The Kospi fell over 3.5% on a US chipmaker selloff → NVDA below $206.69 → the 90-day low at $204.75 becomes the reference.
- Rotation unwinds. Payments strength is four sessions old → V below $423.22 → crowded trade, and the cash-flow bid is thinner than it looks.
- Alphabet breaks. Close sits fractionally above its 90-day low → GOOGL below $280.97 → the 52-week low at $270.70 is next on the board.
What flips the desk: a close above $512.81 in AMD. That repairs the failed gap and the compute-unwind read is wrong.
Tomorrow's Checklist
- AMD $491.83 — floor
- V $425.54 — resistance
- GOOGL $280.97 — invalidation