The gap-downs got bought and the gap-ups got sold. That is the session, and it reorders which levels matter.
The Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,913.90, up 540.04 points or 2.13%. The S&P 500 finished 1.5% higher and sits 0.1% below its record. Fine. Underneath, NVDA and AMD both opened lower and closed near their highs.
Meanwhile JPM and V both gapped up and gave it back. Eight of ten names finished green. The two that didn't hold their opens were the two financials.
The Call
The bid showed up on weakness in semis instead of chasing strength, so the desk treats $196.92 in NVDA and $287.18 in AMZN as the two levels that decide the week.
| Symbol | Close | Change | Day range | 52-week range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | $484.33 | +8.18 (+1.72%) | $455.50–$490.85 | $149.22–$584.73 |
| V | $365.60 | -0.53 (-0.14%) | $364.42–$371.97 | $293.89–$373.97 |
| JPM | $352.65 | +0.86 (+0.24%) | $350.84–$355.55 | $279.10–$359.30 |
| TSLA | $322.09 | +10.88 (+3.50%) | $310.49–$324.62 | $297.38–$498.83 |
| META | $590.15 | +33.44 (+6.01%) | $559.37–$597.50 | $520.26–$796.25 |
| AMZN | $284.13 | +12.55 (+4.62%) | $278.00–$287.18 | $196.00–$287.18 |
| GOOGL | $373.47 | +17.34 (+4.87%) | $363.37–$376.68 | $190.12–$408.61 |
| NVDA | $206.64 | +5.89 (+2.93%) | $196.92–$208.73 | $164.07–$236.54 |
| MSFT | $487.75 | +23.03 (+4.96%) | $475.14–$491.65 | $349.20–$553.72 |
| AAPL | $303.41 | -5.50 (-1.78%) | $302.56–$311.77 | $201.68–$344.57 |
Risk Sheet
- NVDA $206.64 — gapped down to $197.62, low $196.92, closed at 82% of the range on 16.5M shares. Below $196.92 the reversal is void. Our $185 downside call from July 30 was wrong and is long dead — that thesis expired.
- AMZN $284.13 — the session high of $287.18 is the 52-week high. A close above it confirms the breakout. The $278.00 low is the invalidation.
- AMD $484.33 — gapped down 2.94%, then covered $35.35 from low to high. $490.85 is the ceiling. Below $455.50 the whole day is undone.
- MSFT $487.75 — up $23.03, now 11.9% below the $553.72 high. $491.65 caps it. A close under $475.14 fills the gap.
- META $590.15 — biggest mover at +6.01%, still 25.9% below $796.25. $559.37 is the line that keeps this constructive.
- GOOGL $373.47 — closest megacap to its high at 8.6% below $408.61. $363.37 is support.
- TSLA $322.09 — 8.3% above the $297.38 low. Improved, not repaired.
- JPM $352.65 / V $365.60 — both gapped up, both closed in the lower half. $350.84 and $364.42 are the levels the desk is watching.
The three lightest-volume names on the board — AMD at 2.7M, TSLA at 3.1M and META at 4.4M — each closed above 80% of their daily range. Strong closes, thin participation. Don't overpay for those prints.
Note on MSFT: we called for a close below $438.50 after Friday's gap. It never traded there and is now $49.25 higher. What changed is that the gap held and buyers extended it. Structure over story — we were on the wrong side.
The Outlier
AAPL $303.41, down 1.78%. It gapped up 0.26% to $309.72, printed $311.77, then bled to a close at 9% of the range. The only name on the board that opened green and finished at the bottom.
That matters. Apple did not participate in a 2.13% Nasdaq session, on 13.5M shares. It sits 11.9% below the $344.57 high — same distance as Microsoft from its own high, but arrived at from the opposite direction today.
What would flip this read: AAPL reclaiming $311.77 while semis hold their lows. That would make today's weakness a one-session air pocket rather than the start of divergence. Conversely, if NVDA closes back under $196.92 with Apple still leaking, the whole rebound was oil-relief and nothing more.
Tomorrow
- AMZN $287.18 — breakout trigger.
- NVDA $196.92 — reversal invalidation.
- AAPL $300.00 — round-number test.