Filings landed showing Old Peak Finance LLC lifting its JPM stake 166.6% in the second quarter. Meyer Handelman added shares too, taking its position to 317,169. JPMorgan closed $358.48, down 0.99%.
Thirteen-F filings describe June. Friday described something else. Seven of ten names on our board closed red, and the money that did show up went straight into AI silicon.
Verdict
This was a rotation session, narrow and specific — semis and META took the bid while the rest of the complex bled. If AMD clears $480.00, the semis leg has legs. Below TSLA $351.38, the rate-relief rally from Thursday is fully unwound.
| Symbol | Close | Change | Day range | 52-week range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | $477.45 | +21.29 (+4.67%) | $458.00–$478.80 | $149.22–$584.73 |
| V | $375.00 | -3.75 (-0.99%) | $373.66–$377.28 | $293.89–$385.57 |
| JPM | $358.48 | -3.58 (-0.99%) | $355.25–$362.77 | $279.10–$366.50 |
| TSLA | $353.92 | -22.45 (-5.96%) | $351.38–$364.65 | $297.38–$498.83 |
| META | $616.75 | +6.07 (+0.99%) | $605.38–$617.46 | $520.26–$790.80 |
| AMZN | $258.52 | -0.38 (-0.15%) | $255.30–$261.16 | $196.00–$287.20 |
| GOOGL | $338.43 | -4.05 (-1.18%) | $337.10–$343.51 | $226.11–$408.61 |
| NVDA | $230.35 | +1.90 (+0.83%) | $229.64–$234.75 | $164.07–$236.54 |
| MSFT | $499.55 | -10.58 (-2.07%) | $499.38–$510.89 | $349.20–$553.72 |
| AAPL | $319.95 | -8.26 (-2.52%) | $317.86–$328.90 | $225.95–$344.57 |
The Board
- TSLA — $353.92, -5.96%. Gapped down 3.79% and closed in the lower fifth of the range. The entire prior-session 5.41% gain is gone. Our below-$365.92 call filled in one session.
- AMD — $477.45, +4.67%. Gapped up 1.07% and closed at 94% of the day's range. That's a clean print. Still 9.1% below the 90-day high of $525.00.
- MSFT — $499.55, -2.07%. Closed at 1% of the range — the worst close location on the board. The $500 round number is gone. Below $493.83 the slide extends.
- NVDA — $230.35, +0.83%. Third consecutive green close and a fresh 90-day high. Volume led the board at 3.9M shares. But it tagged $234.75 and closed in the lower fifth — that fade matters.
- META — $616.75, +0.99%. Fourth straight green close, printed at the 90-day high. Upper-range finish. $605.38 is the reference low under it.
- AAPL — $319.95, -2.52%. Lower-third close after failing at $328.90. Down 5.9% over 30 sessions — the only name on our board negative on that window.
- GOOGL — $338.43, -1.18%. Lower-third close. Sits 10.4% below the 90-day high of $377.61.
- V — $375.00, -0.99%. Gapped down 1.08% and never recovered it. Mid-range close.
- JPM — $358.48, -0.99%. Middle of the range, 2.2% below the 52-week high of $366.50.
- AMZN — $258.52, -0.15%. Flat, mid-range. No signal.
AMD outperformed TSLA by 10.63 percentage points in a single session.
The NVDA catalyst was the reported $12.9 billion Hugging Face acquisition, which analysts called strategically valuable. Traders may have been positioning on it. The heavy volume came with a weak close, so we don't press it yet.
What We're Changing
Our AMD below-$452.35 call is dead. The session low was $458.00 and price never threatened it. We were fading a name up 5.0% over 30 sessions — wrong side.
Two other misses to own. We called V below $355.00 and MSFT below $475.00. Both expired unfilled. Visa is 2.7% below its 52-week high, and Microsoft is still up 27.0% over 30 sessions. Shorting strength into that was the error.
The JPM above-$366.50 call stays live but needs 2.2% by Wednesday. Low odds now.
What flips us on Tesla: a close back above $364.65 within five sessions and the unwind read is wrong.
Open Checklist
- AMD $480.00 — above, the semis bid confirms.
- TSLA $351.38 — below, the unwind extends.
- MSFT $493.83 — below, the three-session slide runs.